Tag Archives: Costs

ACOs Do Not Improve Spending or Quality

Thank to Dr. McCanne, I am re-posting the following article from the Annals of Internal Medicine that was published Tuesday. I have written before about MSSPs, so I thought it would be a respite from talking about single payer.

Here is the article in its entirety:

Annals of Internal Medicine
June 18, 2019
Performance in the Medicare Shared Savings Program After Accounting for Nonrandom Exit: An Instrumental Variable Analysis
By Adam A. Markovitz, BS; John M. Hollingsworth, MD, MS; John Z. Ayanian, MD, MPP; Edward C. Norton, PhD; Phyllis L. Yan, MS; Andrew M. Ryan, PhD

Abstract

Background:
Accountable care organizations (ACOs) in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) are associated with modest savings. However, prior research may overstate this effect if high-cost clinicians exit ACOs.

Objective:
To evaluate the effect of the MSSP on spending and quality while accounting for clinicians’ nonrandom exit.

Design:
Similar to prior MSSP analyses, this study compared MSSP ACO participants versus control beneficiaries using adjusted longitudinal models that accounted for secular trends, market factors, and beneficiary characteristics. To further account for selection effects, the share of nearby clinicians in the MSSP was used as an instrumental variable. Hip fracture served as a falsification outcome. The authors also tested for compositional changes among MSSP participants.

Setting:
Fee-for-service Medicare, 2008 through 2014.

Patients:
A 20% sample (97 204 192 beneficiary-quarters).

Measurements:
Total spending, 4 quality indicators, and hospitalization for hip fracture.

Results:
In adjusted longitudinal models, the MSSP was associated with spending reductions (change, −$118 [95% CI, −$151 to −$85] per beneficiary-quarter) and improvements in all 4 quality indicators. In instrumental variable models, the MSSP was not associated with spending (change, $5 [CI, −$51 to $62] per beneficiary-quarter) or quality. In falsification tests, the MSSP was associated with hip fracture in the adjusted model (−0.24 hospitalizations for hip fracture [CI, −0.32 to −0.16 hospitalizations] per 1000 beneficiary-quarters) but not in the instrumental variable model (0.05 hospitalizations [CI, −0.10 to 0.20 hospitalizations] per 1000 beneficiary-quarters). Compositional changes were driven by high-cost clinicians exiting ACOs: High-cost clinicians (99th percentile) had a 30.4% chance of exiting the MSSP, compared with a 13.8% chance among median-cost clinicians (50th percentile).

Limitation:
The study used an observational design and administrative data.

Conclusion:
After adjustment for clinicians’ nonrandom exit, the MSSP was not associated with improvements in spending or quality. Selection effects — including exit of high-cost clinicians — may drive estimates of savings in the MSSP.

Primary Funding Source:
Horowitz Foundation for Social Policy, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and National Institute on Aging.

In addition, here is an article from The Incidental Economist of June 17th on the same subject:

The Incidental Economist
June 17, 2019
Spending Reductions in the Medicare Shared Savings Program: Selection or Savings?
By J. Michael McWilliams, MD, PhD, Alan M. Zaslavsky, PhD, Bruce E. Landon, MD, MBA, and Michael E. Chernew, PhD.

Prior studies suggest that accountable care organizations (ACOs) in the MSSP have achieved modest, growing savings. In a recent study in Annals of Internal Medicine, Markovitz et al. conclude that savings from the MSSP are illusory, an artifact of risk selection behaviors by ACOs such as “pruning” primary care physicians (PCPs) with high-cost patients. Their conclusions appear to contradict previous findings that characteristics of ACO patients changed minimally over time relative to local control groups.

Conclusion

Monitoring ACOs will be essential, particularly as incentives for selection are strengthened as regional spending rates become increasingly important in determining benchmarks. Although there has likely been some gaming, the evidence to date — including the study by Markovitz et al. — provides no clear evidence of a costly problem and suggests that ACOs have achieved very small, but real, savings. Causal inference is hard but necessary to inform policy. When conclusions differ, opportunities arise to understand methodological differences and to clarify their implications for policy.

And finally, Don McCanne’s comment:

This important study in the highly reputable Annals of Internal Medicine concludes that accountable care organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) did not show any improvement in spending or quality when adjustments were made for selection effects, especially the non-random exit of high-cost clinicians (“I’m worth the extra money, and if you’re gonna cut my fees, I’m outta here.”)

The conclusions were immediately challenged by others in the policy community who have previously published studies indicating that “ACOs have achieved very small, but real, savings,” albeit admitting that “there has likely been some gaming.” And the savings were, indeed, very small. Others have suggested that the very small savings did not take into consideration the significant increase in provider administrative costs for technological equipment and personnel to run the ACOs, and certainly did not consider other unintended consequences such as the tragic increase in physician burnout.

Another problem with the infatuation for ACOs is that politicians and the policy community are insisting that we continue with this experiment in spite of the disappointing results to date. That simply postpones the adoption of truly effective policies, such as those in a single payer Medicare for All program, that would actually improve quality while greatly reducing administrative waste. The tragedy is that this also perpetuates uninsurance, underinsurance, and personal financial hardship from medical bills.

People are suffering and dying while the policy community continues to diddle with ACOs and other injudicious policy inventions. Enough! It’s long past time to reduce suffering and save lives! Single Payer Medicare for All!

(Yes, I’m angry, but even more I’m terribly anguished over the health care injustices that we continue to tolerate through our collective inaction.)

See, we can’t get away from Medicare for All after all.

 

How much are you really paying for healthcare? – Managed Care Matters

A little Monday evening catch-up from posts received this morning, but was not able to read and relate to you.

The article below from Joe Paduda examines how much we are really paying for health care, and shows in graphic detail how prices have gone up in health care.

Here is Joe’s article:

Recent posts have focused on defining Medicare for All/Single Payer and the problem both are intended to solve – healthcare prices in the US are the problem. Today, we’ll figure out what you really pay for healthcare. That’s pretty darn … Continue reading How much are you really paying for healthcare?

Source: How much are you really paying for healthcare? – Managed Care Matters

Medical Mystery: Something Happened to the U.S. Health System After 1980 | The Incidental Economist

Good morning all. While perusing my LinkedIn feed, I found this article from May of last year, and thought it would be a perfect addition to the series of articles posted last week about Medicare for All/Single Payer, and why opposition to it is more harmful than the alleged or imagined fear-mongering we are seeing from many quarters.

This is especially significant in light of my post last week, Health Care Is Not a Market, and as the article below suggests, the US health care system diverged exactly at the time of the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, and the introduction of pro-market forces, supply-side economics.

So it is no coincidence that as Austin Frakt writes, that prices went up, while health outcomes went down, and that socioeconomic status and other social factors exert larger influences on longevity.

Here is the article:

The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2018, The New York Times Company). Research for this piece was supported by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation.

Source: Medical Mystery: Something Happened to the U.S. Health System After 1980 | The Incidental Economist

National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018–27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth | Health Affairs

Health Affairs.com published the following research article yesterday projecting national health expenditures from 2018 to 2027.

According to the article, national health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent for 2018–27 and represent 19.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2027.

In addition, spending growth during 2018–27 is expected to be driven primarily by long-observed demographic and economic factors fundamental to the health sector.

Prices for health care goods and services are projected to grow 2.5 percent per year, on average, for 2018–27—faster than the average price growth experienced over the last decade—and to account for nearly half of projected personal health care spending growth.

Average annual spending growth in Medicare (7.4 percent) is expected to exceed that in Medicaid (5.5 percent) and private health insurance (4.8 percent) over the projection period, mostly as a result of comparatively higher projected enrollment growth, according to the article abstract.

And finally, the insured share of the population is expected to remain stable at around 90 percent throughout the period, as net gains in health coverage from all sources are projected to keep pace with population growth.

Yet, Don McCanne states in his comment, that the authors anticipate that a decade from now we will still have tens of millions uninsured.

So, it is vital that we continue to push to enact Single Payer/Medicare for All, and bring down the cost of health care, and the increases in spending that the current broken for-profit system generates.

Here is the link to the abstract and article:

Research Article Health Affairs Vol.0 No.0 National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018–27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth

Source: National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018–27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth | Health Affairs

And here is the link to another article from Healthcare Dive.com that summarizes what Health Affairs.com’s article discusses:

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/us-healthcare-spending-growth-to-hit-55-by-2027-cms-predicts/548795/

Could Medicare for All Solve the healthcare cost problem? – Managed Care Matters

Following on the heels of yesterday’s post from Joe, today’s post covers the cost of healthcare, and what Medicare for All could do to solve it.

Recently, two billionaires, Former NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former barista-in-chief Howard Schultz have both said that the US cannot afford Medicare for All/Single Payer health care.

But if we look at Joe’s article, and his subsequent ones later this week, can we afford not to?

You decide.

Here’s Joe’s article:

This week we are unpacking Single Payer/Medicare for All to better understand the many variations of SP/MFA and now they are different, how those variations might work, and whether some version is a) politically viable and b) would solve the … Continue reading Could Medicare for All Solve the healthcare cost problem?

Source: Could Medicare for All Solve the healthcare cost problem? – Managed Care Matters

Prices — not use — drive higher healthcare costs, HCCI says | Healthcare Dive

The following article from Healthcare Dive is in line with other recent articles on the subject of health care costs and spending. And if that is true, then perhaps going to a more equitable, more inclusive and expanded single payer system that has been proven to provide lower costs and better quality is the right way to fix our expensive and broken health care system.

Prices are increasing for the sole purpose of squeezing more and more profit out of a system that should not be guided by supply and demand laws, but rather out of the idea that all citizens need health care at some point, so it should be available to them without having to go bankrupt, or to defer paying bills, or forgoing care altogether.

Anyway, here is the Healthcare Dive article:

Inpatient utilization dropped, but higher prices increased inpatient spending by 10% between 2013 and 2017. Meanwhile, outpatient surgery prices and higher emergency room use and prices led to more outpatient costs.

Source: Prices — not use — drive higher healthcare costs, HCCI says | Healthcare Dive

Low Wage Workers Pay More For Health Care Than High Wage Workers « Workers Comp Insider

Tom Lynch, of LynchRyan, posted this last week, but due to a technical error, it did not reach his audience. This article should be cited by anyone who encounters libertarian know-it-all’s on the Internet who put the blame of our expensive health care system on such individuals as lawyers, as one such person I recently debated. Also, the chart from the OECD should be cited over and over again when defending the subject of improved Medicare for All single payer health care. However, Tom does not support Medicare for All, which is understandable, but not a viable position given the overwhelming support it has among many Americans.

Here is Tom’s article:

Anyone who can rub two brain cells together knows America spends more, much more, on health care than any other developed nation, as this chart from the Organization for Economic and Cooperative De…

Source: Low Wage Workers Pay More For Health Care Than High Wage Workers « Workers Comp Insider