Category Archives: Costs

Medical Mystery: Something Happened to the U.S. Health System After 1980 | The Incidental Economist

Good morning all. While perusing my LinkedIn feed, I found this article from May of last year, and thought it would be a perfect addition to the series of articles posted last week about Medicare for All/Single Payer, and why opposition to it is more harmful than the alleged or imagined fear-mongering we are seeing from many quarters.

This is especially significant in light of my post last week, Health Care Is Not a Market, and as the article below suggests, the US health care system diverged exactly at the time of the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, and the introduction of pro-market forces, supply-side economics.

So it is no coincidence that as Austin Frakt writes, that prices went up, while health outcomes went down, and that socioeconomic status and other social factors exert larger influences on longevity.

Here is the article:

The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2018, The New York Times Company). Research for this piece was supported by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation.

Source: Medical Mystery: Something Happened to the U.S. Health System After 1980 | The Incidental Economist

National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018–27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth | Health Affairs

Health Affairs.com published the following research article yesterday projecting national health expenditures from 2018 to 2027.

According to the article, national health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent for 2018–27 and represent 19.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2027.

In addition, spending growth during 2018–27 is expected to be driven primarily by long-observed demographic and economic factors fundamental to the health sector.

Prices for health care goods and services are projected to grow 2.5 percent per year, on average, for 2018–27—faster than the average price growth experienced over the last decade—and to account for nearly half of projected personal health care spending growth.

Average annual spending growth in Medicare (7.4 percent) is expected to exceed that in Medicaid (5.5 percent) and private health insurance (4.8 percent) over the projection period, mostly as a result of comparatively higher projected enrollment growth, according to the article abstract.

And finally, the insured share of the population is expected to remain stable at around 90 percent throughout the period, as net gains in health coverage from all sources are projected to keep pace with population growth.

Yet, Don McCanne states in his comment, that the authors anticipate that a decade from now we will still have tens of millions uninsured.

So, it is vital that we continue to push to enact Single Payer/Medicare for All, and bring down the cost of health care, and the increases in spending that the current broken for-profit system generates.

Here is the link to the abstract and article:

Research Article Health Affairs Vol.0 No.0 National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018–27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth

Source: National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018–27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth | Health Affairs

And here is the link to another article from Healthcare Dive.com that summarizes what Health Affairs.com’s article discusses:

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/us-healthcare-spending-growth-to-hit-55-by-2027-cms-predicts/548795/

Could Medicare for All Solve the healthcare cost problem? – Managed Care Matters

Following on the heels of yesterday’s post from Joe, today’s post covers the cost of healthcare, and what Medicare for All could do to solve it.

Recently, two billionaires, Former NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former barista-in-chief Howard Schultz have both said that the US cannot afford Medicare for All/Single Payer health care.

But if we look at Joe’s article, and his subsequent ones later this week, can we afford not to?

You decide.

Here’s Joe’s article:

This week we are unpacking Single Payer/Medicare for All to better understand the many variations of SP/MFA and now they are different, how those variations might work, and whether some version is a) politically viable and b) would solve the … Continue reading Could Medicare for All Solve the healthcare cost problem?

Source: Could Medicare for All Solve the healthcare cost problem? – Managed Care Matters

Prices — not use — drive higher healthcare costs, HCCI says | Healthcare Dive

The following article from Healthcare Dive is in line with other recent articles on the subject of health care costs and spending. And if that is true, then perhaps going to a more equitable, more inclusive and expanded single payer system that has been proven to provide lower costs and better quality is the right way to fix our expensive and broken health care system.

Prices are increasing for the sole purpose of squeezing more and more profit out of a system that should not be guided by supply and demand laws, but rather out of the idea that all citizens need health care at some point, so it should be available to them without having to go bankrupt, or to defer paying bills, or forgoing care altogether.

Anyway, here is the Healthcare Dive article:

Inpatient utilization dropped, but higher prices increased inpatient spending by 10% between 2013 and 2017. Meanwhile, outpatient surgery prices and higher emergency room use and prices led to more outpatient costs.

Source: Prices — not use — drive higher healthcare costs, HCCI says | Healthcare Dive

Low Wage Workers Pay More For Health Care Than High Wage Workers « Workers Comp Insider

Tom Lynch, of LynchRyan, posted this last week, but due to a technical error, it did not reach his audience. This article should be cited by anyone who encounters libertarian know-it-all’s on the Internet who put the blame of our expensive health care system on such individuals as lawyers, as one such person I recently debated. Also, the chart from the OECD should be cited over and over again when defending the subject of improved Medicare for All single payer health care. However, Tom does not support Medicare for All, which is understandable, but not a viable position given the overwhelming support it has among many Americans.

Here is Tom’s article:

Anyone who can rub two brain cells together knows America spends more, much more, on health care than any other developed nation, as this chart from the Organization for Economic and Cooperative De…

Source: Low Wage Workers Pay More For Health Care Than High Wage Workers « Workers Comp Insider

Health Insurance Costs Accelerating for Workers | HealthLeaders Media

This is a follow-up to my previous post, Health Care Costs Rising for Workers. My post then cited a Kaiser study; this article references the University of Minnesota’s State Health Access Data Assistance Center.

On Monday, I reported that there is an effort underway to discredit the move towards single payer by various groups, and even Howard Schultz, the outgoing Chairman of Starbucks said the following back in June:

“It concerns me that so many voices within the Democratic Party are going so far to the left. I say to myself, ‘How are we going to pay for these things,’ in terms of things like single payer [and] people espousing the fact that the government is going to give everyone a job. I don’t think that’s something realistic. I think we got to get away from these falsehoods and start talking about the truth and not false promises.”

So, if these two studies are accurate, and there is no way to prove they aren’t, then both Mr. Schultz and the various groups attempting to derail single payer, are only going to make things worse for workers, and for everyone else.

Oh, and by the way, there have been studies that indicated that we could afford single payer health care, especially a report sponsored by a Koch Brothers backed think tank, Mercatus.

So, consider the following from this Health Leaders article back in October of this year.

The average premium for employer-sponsored plans rose $267, or 4.4% between 2016 and 2017, which is twice the increase recorded between 2015 and 2016.

Source: Health Insurance Costs Accelerating for Workers | HealthLeaders Media

At the Bottom: A Work Comp Perspective on the Need for Single Payer

It is rare when someone from the work comp blogosphere crosses into health care and advocates that the US learn from other countries that have universal health care, in whatever form it takes in those countries.

Tom Lynch of Lynch Ryan’s Workers’ Comp Insider blog, did just that with a very detailed analysis of the US health care system compared to that of other Organization for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD) countries.

Here is Tom’s article:

What does a nation owe its citizens with respect to health care?

For nearly all members of the Organization for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD), the answer is guaranteed, high-quality, universal care at reasonable, affordable cost. For OECD founding member America, the answer seems to have become an opportunity to access care, which may or may not be of high-quality at indeterminate, wildly fluctuating and geographically varying cost.

It is indisputable that the US devotes more of its GDP to health care than other countries. How much more? For that answer we can turn to many sources, roughly all saying the same thing. The OECD produces annual date, as does the World Health Organization, among others. Another reliable and respected source is The Commonwealth Fund, which conducted a study of eleven high income OECD members including the US. The collection of health care cost data lags, so data from this study is mostly from 2014. Here is the cost picture:

As you can see, in 1980, US spending was not much different from the other ten OECD countries in the study. While high, it was at least in the same universe. But now, at 50% more than Switzerland, our closest competitor in the “how much can we spend” sweepstakes”, we might be forgiven for asking, “What in the name of Hippocrates happened?” As if this weren’t enough, the 2014 GDP percentage of spend, 16.6%, has now risen to nearly 18%, according to the CMS.

So, what do we get for all that money? We ought to have the highest life expectancy, the lowest infant mortality rate and the best health care outcomes in the entire OECD. But we don’t.

For many readers, it is probably galling to see both the UK and Australia at the top of the health care system performance measure and at the bottom of the spending measure. In the early 2000s, each of these countries poured a significant amount of money into improving its performance, and the results speak for themselves.

Consider all of this mere background to the purpose of this blog post.

Last week, we wrote about the terrible, 40-year stagnation of real wage growth in the US, pointing out that in that period real wages in 1982-1984 constant dollars have risen only 4.5%. But, as we have seen, health care spending did not follow that trajectory. This has resulted in tremendous hardship for families as they have tried to keep pace with rising health care costs. For, just as US health care spending has risen dramatically since 1980, so has what families have to pay for it.

To put this in perspective, consider this. Since 1999 the US CPI has risen 54%, but, as the chart above shows, the cost of an employer offered family plan has risen 338%. If a family’s health care plan’s cost growth had been inflation-based, the total cost to employer and employee would be $8,898 in 2018, not $19,616. In 2018, the average family in an employer-based plan pays 30% of the plan’s cost ($6,850), plus a $2,000 deductible, plus co-pays that average $20 whenever health care is accessed, plus varying levels of co-pays for drugs.

On top of all that is the enormous difficulty people have in trying to navigate the dizzying health care system (if you can call it that). American health care is a dense forest of bewildering complexity, a many-headed Hydra that would make Hesiod proud, a labyrinthine geography in which even Theseus with his ball of string would find himself lost.

With wages and health care costs growing ever farther apart, America has a crisis of epic proportion. Yet all we can seem to do is shout at each other about it. When do you think that will end? When will we begin to answer the question that this post began with: What does a nation owe its citizens with respect to health care? When will our nation’s leaders realize we can actually learn from countries like Australia, the UK, Switzerland and all the other high performing, low cost members of the OECD? Continuing on the present course is no longer a viable option.

 

Note: You may be questioning The Commonwealth Fund’s research. To put your mind at ease about that, here are the study sources:

Our data come from a variety of sources. One is comparative survey research. Since 1998, The Commonwealth Fund, in collaboration with international partners, has supported surveys of patients and primary care physicians in advanced countries, collecting information for a standardized set of metrics on health system performance. Other comparative data are drawn from the most recent reports of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Link: http://workerscompinsider.com/2018/11/at-the-bottom-looking-up/