Health Affairs.com published the following research article yesterday projecting national health expenditures from 2018 to 2027.
According to the article, national health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent for 2018–27 and represent 19.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2027.
In addition, spending growth during 2018–27 is expected to be driven primarily by long-observed demographic and economic factors fundamental to the health sector.
Prices for health care goods and services are projected to grow 2.5 percent per year, on average, for 2018–27—faster than the average price growth experienced over the last decade—and to account for nearly half of projected personal health care spending growth.
Average annual spending growth in Medicare (7.4 percent) is expected to exceed that in Medicaid (5.5 percent) and private health insurance (4.8 percent) over the projection period, mostly as a result of comparatively higher projected enrollment growth, according to the article abstract.
And finally, the insured share of the population is expected to remain stable at around 90 percent throughout the period, as net gains in health coverage from all sources are projected to keep pace with population growth.
Yet, Don McCanne states in his comment, that the authors anticipate that a decade from now we will still have tens of millions uninsured.
So, it is vital that we continue to push to enact Single Payer/Medicare for All, and bring down the cost of health care, and the increases in spending that the current broken for-profit system generates.
Here is the link to the abstract and article:
Research Article Health Affairs Vol.0 No.0 National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018–27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth
And here is the link to another article from Healthcare Dive.com that summarizes what Health Affairs.com’s article discusses: